Boxing: Floyd Mayweather vs Canelo Alvarez

Posted: September 12, 2013 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

We all know I’m a big boxing fan and I’ve read quite a bit of commentary on Facebook regarding this. Due to the comments, I have to put my one dollar two cents.

This weekend will be Floyd Mayweather (44-0 26 KO’s) vs. Saul Alvarez (42-0-1 30 KO’s). The fight will take place at a catch weight of 152 pounds.

Boxing is a bit more complicated than the comparison of wins and losses and stats. They do say, however, that a good big man beats a good little man so let’s look at the obvious first:

Record: 44 wins 0 losses 26 knockouts 42 wins 0 losses 30 knockouts, 1 draw
Edge: Floyd
Note: I put little validity in the records as I mentioned earlier.

Height: 5’8″ 5’9″
Edge: Alvarez
Note: There’s much talk about how much bigger Alvarez is, but it isn’t about height. His body type is larger.

Reach: 72″ 70.5″
Edge: Floyd
Note: Having Floyd, who is faster and a better boxer and counter puncher have a small reach advantage could be troublesome. Fortunately for Alvarez it’s not a large disparity.

Power:
Edge: Alvarez
Note: This is tricky. I mean, it’s evident Alvarez has more power, but how much more? It’s hard to tell as Alvarez has not been tested. He also should have beaten his last few opponents by KO and was unable to.

I consider those to be worth pointing out, but I find them fairly insignificant to the outcome. The record can be tainted by padding records, level of opposition, etc.

Height and reach CAN and often do affect a fight’s outcome, but that’s all dependent on the fighting style. A height advantage is lost when a fighter doesn’t fight standing straight and a reach advantage is lost when fighting on the inside. Power is only important if you land flush. There are other more important factors to consider, I think.

Defense:
Edge: Floyd
Note: Currently there is nobody is boxing with a better defense than Floyd. Prior to Floyd I would say that James Toney was up there as well. The unknown is when will the reflexes slow down enough to affect this.

Speed:
Edge: Floyd
Note: Even the biggest Alvarez fan knows that Floyd has much more speed. In recent memory the only other fighter with as an impressive hand speed was Roy Jones Jr. in his prime.

Accuracy:
Edge: Floyd
Note: Once again, Floyd throws fewer punches, but has great accuracy compounded by the speed and reflexes. Notable accurate punchers are Juan Manuel Marquez and Nonito Donaire. Plus, Alvarez has a bad habit of going too wide. I suspect he’s going to be eating jabs and overhand rights all night.

Endurance:
Edge: Floyd
Note: Alvarez has gone down the Oscar de la Hoya road and fades down the stretch. He is young enough to correct this (and should), but it has never been an issue with Floyd. The longer the fight goes, the less likely Alvarez wins despite the ever present puncher’s chance.

Boxing IQ:
Edge: Floyd
Note: No knock on Alvarez, but Floyd is too far ahead on boxing IQ. Alvarez is young and has a lot of improvement and experience to gain. Don’t be fooled by the records. Alvarez is brand new and, if managed properly, will be around for a while. And he has not even peaked yet. If he trained with Roach or Beristein, this kid could be a monster.

Heart:
Edge: Tie
Note: I respect any fighter in any fight sport for being in the ring. That said, Floyd has shown heart and although Canelo hasn’t been tested to find his, I’ve seen nothing to make me think he would fold.

I think the common thought is that Alvarez will start fast. I disagree. It’s better for him to take his time and throw as many jabs and body shots as possible. I see him putting together combinations and trying to force Floyd on the ropes. Unfortunately I don’t see him able of keeping that pace up. At this pace I think Floyd’s defense flusters the kid and he tries to brawl. Once his game plan is removed, as usual I expect Mayweather’s adjustments around round 4. I think Alvarez will have his moments but I don’t expect him to be ahead in any scorecard. Although I don’t think Floyd will KO Alvarez, I expect to see them both rocked at some point. Alvarez is going to be heavy for that fight (note he refused to be weighed during the All Access) and he certainly has a punch.

For the Mayweather vs Cotto fight I said ..”He will then toy with the idea publicly of fighting Sergio Martinez at 160, but will fight at a catch weight.” Martinez is injured and Mayweather has 3 more fights after this one. Assuming Mayweather wins, I think Martinez vs Mayweather happens one fight after this one. I sense talk of an immediate rematch with Canelo no matter the outcome. Too much money has been made already and the fight hasn’t even taken place.

PS: if you think the two pound difference won’t matter, keep in mind that Alvarez came in at 172 vs Trout, 167 vs Lopez, 165 vs Mathew Hatton and 167 vs Mosley. He will struggle because of those two pounds. If he is forced to fight at a high rate or cut weight in an unhealthy manner, I can see the kid being out to sleep. His staff would have to be morons for this to happen so I don’t expect it.

That said, keep an eye on the weigh-in today. Floyd will likely be 150 and Canelo 152. If Canelo looks gaunt or weak, I’d start placing bets immediately.

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