Canelo vs GGG

Posted: September 15, 2017 in fitness, humor, Uncategorized
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

As a boxing fan, I always like to put my 2 cents in.

I like this fight because it has all the makings of an exciting fight. However, it frustrates me because Golden Boy waited 2 years to make it and only did so because GGG finally struggled in his last fight. In fact, in May 2016 Canelo gave up the WBC belt so that he would not be required to fight GGG. Either way, here are the stats:

Golovkin-Canelo-1211

Stats:
GGG:
35 years old, Height: 5’10”, Reach: 74″, 37 fights / 37 wins / 33 wins by KO


Canelo:
27 years old, Height: 5’09”, Reach: 71″, 51 fights / 49 wins / 34 wins by KO (1 draw, 1 loss)

Record Advantage: GGG
Note: The thing to keep in mind about the record is that GGG has only fought at 160 lbs. and Canelo started at 140 lbs. Still, one can’t argue that GGG’s 89% KO percentage with an undefeated record is more impressive.

Height Advantage: GGG
Note: There is a difference of only one inch in height, but that’s deceptive. Canelo is more muscular but GGG is more dense. GGG is only an inch taller, but make no mistake, he’s the bigger guy in there.

Reach Advantage: GGG
Note: Speaking of the bigger guy, the first significant, noticeable difference is a 3″ reach advantage. Not only is this significant, GGG works behind a power jab. Now it’s a power jab with 3″ advantage. Expect a lot of left power jabs to open up right crosses.

Power Advantage: GGG
This one is easy, but frustrating. Clearly GGG not only has more power, but he also has the KO record against bigger men. Canelo’s best KO’s have been against low level guys and in his most recent fight was not able to hurt Chavez Jr, who was little more than a piƱata that looked like a boxer. Can Canelo hurt GGG? Sure, but the smart game plan would be for him to try to outbox GGG than trying to KO a guy who hasn’t been KO’ed by middleweights.

Speed Advantage: Canelo
I think there’s a clear speed difference in Canelo’s favor. He’s a good counter puncher, so any individual shots that GGG throws can and likely will be followed up with a good counter.

Defense: Canelo
Canelo has a better defense, but not by much and it’s very recent. Fans tend to forget he’s young and is still improving. He has shown improvement in his defense and although it isn’t much better than GGG’s, it is better.

Accuracy Advantage: Tie
Truth is that I don’t think either one of them has an incredible accuracy like Marquez or Mayweather. Off the top of my head, I don’t see a clear winner in accuracy and it’s my blog so I do what I want.

Endurance Advantage: GGG
Canelo fades as fights go on. It’s probably the only glaring flaw that he has. GGG went the distance in his last fight and was clearly tired, but it isn’t and hasn’t been a problem. It’s not a coincidence that Canelo’s team started training shortly after the Chavez Jr. fight. Canelo can’t be allowed to fade in a fight with a bigger guy who has a huge punch.

Boxing IQ Advantage: GGG
This was very close, but let me explain. I think both fighters know what they’re doing very well. However, GGG is a more complete boxer. While Canelo has better combinations, GGG works off a power jab, gives different angles, fights going backwards… He has a much bigger arsenal than Canelo. Also, although both have adapted in fights, the only one with a loss is Canelo. Sure, it was against Mayweather but even in tough fights GGG has adapted and won.

Heart Advantage: Tie
These guys are tough guys is a tough guy’s sport. I can’t see this one as anything but a tie.

The biggest issue I see is that although Canelo has fought “at middleweight” 3 times, 2 of those times were at a catch weight of 155 pounds. His last fight was against a bigger Chavez Jr at 164.5 pounds. The problem is that Chavez was drained to make weight and Canelo was not able to hurt Chavez despite landing at 3 punches to 1.

Much is being made from GGG’s last fight against Jacobs because it was a close fight and GGG did not win by KO. However, not many mention that there was no weight clause come fight night. Jacobs was estimated to be fighting at least one (and probably 2) weight class above middleweight – and he still lost. This is what prompted Golden Boy to finally take the fight and I think it will be the biggest factor in the fight. The most important thing to remember there is that Jacobs, weighing about 180 didn’t hurt GGG. Does Canelo have more power than Jacobs did? I don’t think so.

Canelo fades towards the middle of fights. He also likes to use the ropes a lot by leaning on them and throwing occasional shots from there. It helps him catch a breather. The problem with that is that it favors GGG for Canelo to be on the ropes. If Canelo does that (and I expect he will), he’s going to get beaten up pretty badly. If Canelo avoids the ropes and has his usual stamina issues, he’s going to get stopped. I don’t think age showed in GGG’s last fight. I think he had a tough fight against a bigger guy. I suspect the fight will have exciting moments but an overly aggressive Canelo gets beat down. Sure, Canelo looked great against Chavez Jr and Liam Smith, but come on. Those aren’t quality fights. I have a difficult time seeing this ending any other way than by late knockout by GGG putting together another Big Drama Show. GGG by knockout in the 11th.

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